For most people, the marriage between the once perceived opponents who found themselves under the same broom in 2015 would not last beyond it primary conducted that year, which is going to be its first official outing. The then ruling party had also boasted and awaited that faithful day but against expectations, things did not fall apart, rather the unity becomes stronger and the party rode on it to victory.
Just when it is least expected, Saraki becomes the new opponent leader between his own party, first, refusing to cue behind the party’s anointed candidate for Senate Presidency, anointment of Sen Ekweremadu as Deputy Senate President against the party’s wish and so on.
At first, Saraki pretended to be fighting for the independence of the legislative arm. Amidst speculations that he was eyeing the presidential seat, his aide denied the allegations but one did not need to be told now that those assertions cannot but be right.
Saraki has always been a good political mathematician, one that is a genius at using the calculus formula. Many had said he contributed to APC’s success in 2015, while that cannot be totally rebuffed, certainly, that move was one of his bravest political moves, at least if not anything, it earned him the third political seat of the nation. He is the third highest beneficiary of the merger after Buhari & Osibajo.
Saraki would have saved his political future by remaining in APC when he was advised to do so and there would have been possibility for his re-emergence as the Senate President at least politics is about negotiations. The 2015 defection saved his face from looming political embarrassment in Kwara State. You would recall that at the time, there was wide publicity of him been stoned in Ilorin.
His future in PDP is bleak especially now that the party ticket has been zoned to the North west. One do not need to wait till the end of the PDP primary, only Kwankwaso can give the president a though time. The uncertainty of his emergence as the party’s flag bearer has also forced him to purchase two forms, one as a senate aspirant and the other as presidential aspirant. While there is no doubt that he would be returned as a senator if he losses the presidential bid, his reemergence as the Senate President is very uncertain because APC seems to have learnt it lessons, a Saraki will never emerge senate president if APC emerges majority in the coming poll. Not only the APC that has learnt this lesson, President Buhari have also learnt his too. The President has seen the consequence of belong to everybody and belonging to nobody, in politics, you must identify with someone, it is dangerous to sit on the fence. In fact, we might have a repetition of the event that led to the emergence of Adams Oshiomole as the party’s Chairman where the president publicly declare his support for him.
One does not win all the time, in fact, the tendencies of failure are high when one get carried away by the preceding success and this might just be the faith that await Saraki. The economist call it law of diminishing return.
In effect, the Saraki political calculus might just be mathematical blunder and political calcu loss. Unfolding events come 2019 will either ascertain this preposition or disprove it not under the watch of Obasajo alone but under the watch of Nigerians, either things fall apart or fall in place.
Asoro Abubakri Olatunji